I assume that the more a module is used by the community the higher the chance it will have a migration path in a major upgrade so I’d probably just need to take a look in some formal module usage statistics.
For example, it is clear to me that Token and Metatag modules will indeed have migration paths due to vast usage in these modules in almost any Drupal website, but formal module usage statistics may not be the only way or even the best way (there might be different formal document by the community noting which modules will surely be supported in the next major version).
How could I know if a module will (or most certainly will) have a migration path when a major upgrade should be done?